Hotter, Wetter, Weirder: A New Report on Philly and Climate Change

A new report on climate change’s inevitable and terrifying impact on Philadelphia deserves a close reading by all of us, as something wicked this way is coming-- and we all need to prepare while working overtime to mitigate it.

Prepared by a consortium of 100 experts spearheaded by Drexel, the report uses data to present the case that Philly is getting hotter, wetter, and decidedly weirder. River ward residents beware:  the tidal Delaware River will likely rise by a foot or more in the next few decades.

Hotter: using weather observed at the airport, the report says eight of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, and temperatures could increase by a whopping six degrees, even more if we don’t start reining in carbon dioxide emissions.

Heat waves will be more commonplace. Today, temperatures max out at 95 or higher about six times annually; by the 2050s the number of 95-degree days is projected to grow to 21 to 34 days by the 2050s. Imagine that: a full month of searing high 90s. Heat waves are technically defined as three or more consecutive days with maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees. Today, we expect about three per year; by the 2050s, that could triple to nine.

Wetter: Maybe you’ve noticed this, but the region is already seeing an increase in precipitation. The report notes that six of the 10 wettest years on record have occurred since 1990; since 2010, the city's Office of Sustainability has already reported that we’ve seen both the wettest day ever and the two wettest years ever. While Philly’s precipitation historically averages about 42 inches annually, some studies predict that it will rise to 52 inches by 2080.

And Climate Central has reported that in the 1950s, our wettest day of the year saw about 2.5 inches of rain. That’s nothing nowadays, as our wettest day is now approaching four inches. Climate Central also notes that Philly is the American city with the third largest increase in heavy downpours-- an extraordinary 360% increase in downpours since 1950.

As Hurricane Ida reminded us, that 100-year storm-- the storm we should only see once every century-- is also becoming more commonplace, as we’ve seen easily four or five 100-year storms in the last 25 years.

Weirder: With apologies to the report’s authors who did not use this word (it’s my own spin), climate change is causing our weather to get weirder. The weather flip-flops erratically between extremes-- too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, a snowless winter last year followed by an unprecedentedly early spring, and then a rapid cooling… 

Witness Ida’s flooding of the Vine Street Expressway, and then spun off a number of tornadoes that slammed into homes especially on the Jersey side.

Witness the derecho that swept through the region three years ago. Spanish for “straight ahead,” a derecho is a powerful linear storm that, like a freight train, bulldozed a 150-mile swath of the area on June 3, 2020-- from Reading all the way to the Jersey shore-- killing three people and leaving 850,000 without power.

The report was released only a week after Cherelle Parker emerged the victor in the city’s crowded mayoral primary, and presumably will become our 100th mayor in January. Her agenda is already crowded, with the gun epidemic high atop her burgeoning list. Memo to the  new mayor: studies also show that murder rates rise with temperatures, so hot summers will sadly only see an increase in the number of murders, something we cannot afford. 

And an increase in heat-related deaths, especially in low-income areas where people can’t afford air conditioning, and have few or even no street trees to mitigate temperatures. 

So, Madame Mayor, we’ve GOT to add climate change to the top of the agenda-- as the city swelters and the rivers rise, our city will become uninhabitable if we don’t.